The Computerless Computer Company
February 1, 2010
Look back ten years at all the products Microsoft published – Office, Windows, Outlook, Great Plains, Explorer, etc. Now look today – do you see much difference? Well, there’s Microsoft Live, which hasn’t really gotten much traction. And what is Microsoft Live but a group of Javascript-based apps that mirror their desktop counterparts? And there’s Bing, of course, so it’s safe to say that Microsoft is trying to do what Google has done, and they are lagging seriously behind. But listen, dear reader – in ten years, almost 100% of what Microsoft makes today will be irrelevant, unnecessary, shipped off to the bit-bucket of history, because things are going to change enough that these dinosaurs won’t make it. The only saving grace for Microsoft is that they have enough cash to buy their way into the future.
Now look at a company that knows how to adapt: IBM. They figured out long ago that making operating systems and personal computers wasn’t going to get them anywhere. Sure, they sell servers and computers, but mostly they run data centers and do consulting. They are the computerless computer company, and they know that in ten years they’ll be doing things completely differently.
I’m so impressed with the IBM team behind ibm.com/smarterplanet. They are constantly renewing themselves, constantly adding value to the business conversation, constantly pushing for answers, knowing that the more information we publish the more difficult it is to find the signal in the noise. If you know me, you know that normally I would never recommend reading a “statement from the CEO.” In fact, I used to make fun of these statements, showing how clueless companies used to be. And, in general, they still are. But this recent one, from IBM’s chairman and chief executive Samuel Palmisano, is really a must-read for followers of the principles of pull.
IBM has an ambitious agenda. They advocate smarter supply chains, saying it’s time to start integrating all the different ways we have of tracking data that follows products. They want to help build smarter cities, help health care systems work smarter, help manufacturers go to mass customization, develop smart energyand transportation grids, help make banks more efficient, smarter IT infrastructure, and much more. They are doing important studies, building the business case for making serious changes now.
IBM will thrive in the next ten years, while Microsoft’s only hope is to buy any winners that emerge while firing employees working on legacy products. In case Steve Ballmer hasn’t noticed, people aren’t buying Windows on their mobile phones. That’s because no one needs Windows anywhere, let alone on his phone. No one is going to need much of anything Microsoft makes, while IBM will continue to set the pace, building server farms, data centers, smart business models, and doing the key consulting work that helps us transition to the 21st century.
My book, Pull, would be a huge asset to IBM. If anyone knows Palmisano personally, please let me know. I would love to send him or his strategists a copy. I think we could make some interesting things happen together.
Next: Mike Bergman
